On Thursday I attended the Emergency Management Organization webinar regarding the past summer’s weather impacts around the province and the tentative forecast for the next three months. Some interesting data was shared by the various agencies (BC Wildfire, BC CDC, BC Min of Transportation, Yukon Wildfire/Flood, Environment Canada):
There were over 16,000 wildfire events, 35% were human caused (the rest were lightning). 868,203 hectares (2.15 million acres) were burned over. As of today there are still 140 active wildfires in BC but none are “wildfires of concern” at this time.
The heat dome in June was a direct cause of well over 550 deaths reported by coroners but that number doesn’t reflect the actual mortality. Surprisingly, the higher percentage of reported deaths occurred in the 50 to 60 years old category. No infants or children died as a result of the heat dome. More deaths occurred in residential populations than institutional. Data was gathered from homes with A/C and those without (in the same neighbourhood) and although indoor temperatures were high during the day, the temperature indoors did not drop much in non air conditioned homes at night compared to the outdoor temperature. This made for much more of a continuous heat stress on residents not able to cool down at night because their house didn’t cool down. The CDC is asking for individuals and communities to become more proactive in dealing with extreme heat events. The hottest temperature ever recorded in BC was 49.8*C near Lytton.
On Thetis we had an unprecedented 77 days in EXTREME fire hazard conditions. The FFMC (fine fuel moisture content), which is approx. the top 5 cm of forest soil, was close to 100%, meaning no moisture whatsoever. The drought code, which reflects the larger, coarser organic forest materials, is still evident in the forests on the southern end of Vancouver Island, which means our forests will likely carry the drought code through the winter. There was no measurable precipitation in July and the above average precipitation in September was during the last weeks of the month.
The intensely hot fires in BC this summer produced hydrophobic soils in the burned areas. These extremely hot fires burned down through the roots, destroying the soil integrity and water cannot sink into the soil. Instead, rain (even seemingly minor amounts) on burned over areas removes the soil and creates land and mud slides, causing washouts and transportation problems.
The short term forecasting from Canadian, American and European models is looking at a trend towards colder and wetter conditions than “normal” for our area and the sea temperatures are trending to below average. This is typically a set up for a La Niña pattern for December, January and February and they have set that at a 60% probability. Colder and wetter on Thetis means a possibility of more snow than in the past few years.
The TIVFD wants to thank all residents on Thetis Island for getting us through a very frightening wildfire season without a major incident. YOU kept our island safe. The changing climate will mean that extended drought and heat events will become the new normal and we all have to become experts in fire prevention.
Fire Chief J. Caldbeck
